The answer, brand by brand
A skincare brand moving into retail asked Arcus a question before writing its media plan: will the shelf eat our online sales? Arcus studied five direct-to-consumer brands that made the same move, from public sources, with every number traced to a page. The answer came as ten slides, a list of all 157 sources, and 14 more slides showing the source page behind each number, captured on September 10, 2026. See the market report.
| Brand | What happened to the online business as retail scaled |
|---|---|
| Hero | Amazon was still the majority of revenue at the $630 million sale. First in its Amazon category in 2024. |
| Bubble | The site became the community and launch channel. Over $100 million a year across 17,000-plus doors (retail locations). |
| Harry’s | Almost 500,000 subscribers added at 80% repeat in the Target launch year. Target sold the subscription. |
| Liquid Death | Dropped its own online fulfillment by choice and sent site shoppers to Amazon and retail. $333 million of retail sales in 2024. |
| Poppi | Still the top-selling soft drink on Amazon past 30,000 doors. 2024 growth came from volume where it was already sold. |
Retail didn’t cannibalize online demand at any of the five. The share shifted, and the online business grew or, in Liquid Death’s case, was handed to Amazon and retail on purpose. The cannibalization that is real is margin: the retailer’s cut, trade spend (what a brand pays retailers for promotions and placement), slotting fees (what it pays to get on the shelf) and deductions.
Why the two channels fed each other
- The halo is measurable. A new retail location lifts online sales in its area by 6.9%, and by 13.9% for direct-to-consumer brands, according to industry research across $848 billion of transactions.
- One price, different counts by channel. Hero holds $12.99 everywhere and changes the count. Bubble prices Walmart three cents under its own site.
- The site keeps a job the shelf can’t do. Harry’s subscription, Hero’s community reviews, Bubble’s ambassadors, Poppi’s founder posts.
- Amazon is the signal buyers read. Retailers “see Amazon success as validation.” Poppi’s Amazon rank went into its line reviews, the meetings where a retailer decides which products stay on the shelf.
- The shelf reaches people the site never did. Two thirds of Harry’s early Target buyers had never bought a razor at Target.
What the media did
The launches that worked pointed media at one retailer’s shelf, in the week the product landed there.
- Hero at Target, 2019. TikTok videos named the retailer and asked people to photograph the shelf. It “helped to double Hero’s sales goals at Target,” at seven times the cost-efficiency of Instagram Stories. Target then expanded the range.
- Bubble at Walmart and Target. Ambassadors’ faces on the Walmart end-of-aisle displays, a Snapchat filter and live TikTok in launch week. At Target, a 380,598-person list at a 74% open rate, sent to one shelf display in one week.
- Poppi, from Amazon to 30,000 doors. One founder video: “over $100,000 on Amazon while we were sleeping.” The Amazon rank became the slide in the line review. TikTok carried most of the paid media.
Retail media was bought for position. Hero’s attributed sales on Target’s network rose 824% ten months after joining, in a vendor’s case study. The report also cites 247% in attributed sales across newer retail media marketplaces, and one line sums up the approach: “We’re willing to accept a lower ROAS on these new marketplaces.” What the networks sell is rank in the retailer’s own search and measurement against the retailer’s own transactions. Those attributed sales land in the buyer’s dashboard. The member bases are large: more than 100 million Target Circle members, about 44 million Ulta members, and more than 90 million CVS ExtraCare members.
The four numbers the buyer reads
Retail buyers judge a brand on four numbers: ACV (how much of the retailer’s volume sits in doors that carry you), units per door per week against the category, household penetration, and repeat. A count of doors is a count. These are what buyers manage to.
Harry’s published its early read: 10% of Target’s cartridge sales and about 50% of handles within four weeks, then sales and penetration tripled by month eight. Those numbers helped sell Walmart. Poppi’s growth at 30,000 doors came from volume where it was already sold, with repeat over 40%. That growth is what PepsiCo paid $1.95 billion for.
The point for a media plan: the buyer reads these numbers at the next review, and the next retailer reads them before saying yes. Media that moves one retailer’s sales rate in the week the product lands shows up in all four. Media that only moves impressions shows up in none of them.
Five moves for the media plan, and what to ask
- Point launch media at one retailer’s shelf in the week your product lands there. Measure the lift in that retailer’s sales rate, not impressions.
- Fund retail media from the trade budget, network by network. Buy search rank and new-to-brand share. Accept a lower ROAS for position.
- Give the site and Amazon jobs the shelf can’t do. A subscription or a drop, reviews syndicated to every listing, one price with counts by channel.
- Report ACV, sales rate, penetration and repeat. Publish a four-week read after the next launch, the way Harry’s did.
- Audit product claims before the media runs. The comment section follows the product onto every retailer’s review tab. Poppi’s claim cost $8.9 million.
Questions worth asking your team before a retail launch: Which retailer and which week is the launch media pointed at? How will we show that retailer’s sales rate moved? Is retail media coming from the trade budget or the brand budget? Which of our product claims would hold up on a review tab?
Common mistakes, and what this doesn’t prove
- Planning for lost demand that the cases don’t show. Plan for margin instead.
- Reporting doors. Buyers manage to the four numbers.
- Different prices on different channels. The cases held one price and changed the count.
- Judging retail media on ROAS alone. The cases bought it for rank and accepted a lower return.
These are five brands that succeeded, studied from public filings, interviews, trade press, retailer media networks and marketplace listings. Brands that moved into retail and struggled are less likely to publish. The 824% figure is a vendor’s case study. The halo figures are averages across many brands, not a forecast for yours. The cases show what happened. Whether your launch media moves a retailer’s sales rate is something your own numbers can show, launch by launch, once retailer data, sales and media sit in one place you own. To start, try it free with a question like “Did our launch media move the retailer’s sales rate?”